14 de setembro de 2019

Financial Apocalypse 2019-2020

The world has frozen in anticipation of the global financial crisis. Some analysts predict its onset in the coming months, others give a delay until the end of 2020 - the beginning of 2021. But both draw quite apocalyptic pictures. The collapse in oil, copper and iron ore prices, falling stocks and currencies, layoffs and bankruptcies.

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7 de setembro de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 09 - 13, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The range 1.1025-1.106 can be called the Pivot Point zone of the last month and a half. It was there that the pair returned to by the end of the week trading session, which indicates the uncertainty prevailing in the market.

It is known that the situation now is most affected by the Trump trade wars and the US Federal Reserve policy. The information that Washington and Beijing could resume negotiations in early October had a positive impact on the stock market: the S&P500 index went up and approached the mark of 3000 again, while the growth rate of 10-year US Treasury bonds yields turned out to be the highest over the past three years. At the same time, the dollar began to strengthen, reaching its maximum since May 2017 against the euro. As a result, on Tuesday 03 September, the EUR/USD pair once again updated the low, reaching the level of 1.0925.

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31 de agosto de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 02 - 06, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. As we expected, the negotiations of the G7 countries on August 24-26 did not affect the foreign exchange market in any way. But it was influenced by many other factors that, contrary to the wishes of Donald Trump, further strengthened the American dollar. We will mention only a few of them. First, it is the conciliatory rhetoric of the USA and China, which gave hope for a trade agreement. Further, there was an increase in personal consumption expenditures in the United States (4.7% instead of the forecast 4.3%) along with an increase in the yield of US treasury bonds and stock indices. If we add to this the slowdown in inflation in Germany and the statement of the future Head of the ECB Christine Lagarde on possible measures to support the Eurozone economy (QE), we get the strengthening of the dollar against the euro by almost 200 points.

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24 de agosto de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 26 - 30, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The Jackson Hole Annual Economic Symposium has traditionally served to give investors an understanding of where US monetary policy will move. That is why the markets were looking forward to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaking at this event.

On the other hand, back in the days when Alan Greenspan was Head of the Federal Reserve, another tradition appeared: let in as much fog as possible when answering questions, so as not to bind oneself with any specific promises.

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17 de agosto de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 19 - 23, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. As expected by most experts, supported by graphical analysis, the dollar went up last week, while the EUR/USD pair went down along with the euro. True, it did not reach the set target, the low of August 1, 1.1025, having found the local bottom at the level of 1.1065.

The reason for the fall of the European currency was in the first place, "doves" promises by the general director of the Bank of Finland and former candidate for the ECB Olli Rehn. According to the statement of this prominent European official, it is already in September that the market expects a reduction in the key rate by 0.1 (and possibly by 0.2) percentage points (now it is -0.4%), as well as the resumption of the QE quantitative easing program in volume about 50 billion euros monthly.

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10 de agosto de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 12 - 16, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The pair is consolidating in the zone of a strong support/resistance level around 1.1200. In general, the zone 1.1150-1.1215 is quite significant for this pair, since it can be called the main Pivot Point of 2015-2016. And now, after three years, the pair has once again fallen into this range, which may indicate some confusion in the market.

Uncertainty factors are many.

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4 de agosto de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 05 - 09, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

USD. Two events took place last week, more precisely on Thursday 01 and Friday 02 August, that could shake the markets. But they did not shake them.

On Thursday, for the first time since 2008, the US Federal Reserve lowered its key rate from 2.50% to 2.25%. The event was quite expected. Markets usually react to such a move, by dropping quotes. However, in this case, instead of falling, the dollar rose, although not by much (the increase against EUR was a little more than 100 points) and not for long (as of Friday, the euro won back 85 points).

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20 de julho de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 22 - 26, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. Recall that the majority (65%) of experts expected further strengthening of the dollar and the slide of the pair to the 1.1150-1.1200 zone. And the pair went down, reaching the level of 1.1200 on the night of July 16-17. However, the strength of the bears dried up there and, two days later, the bulls returned the pair to where it started on Monday July 15, to the level of 1.1285. Thus, for the second week in a row, the pair is in a fairly narrow side channel, limiting its fluctuations to the boundaries of 1.1190 and 1.1285. The reason for such a lull (perhaps before the storm) is not the summer holidays of investors, but their expectation of the ECB meeting on Thursday July 25, at which the European regulator may decide to lower the interest rate.

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13 de julho de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 15-19, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. Recall that 60% of experts named the zone 1.1100-1.1185 as a local bottom. As for the remaining 40%, in their opinion, support 1.1185 should have become an insurmountable obstacle, after which analysts had expected the pair to return to {1level 1.1275-1.1320. That's exactly what happened: the bottom was fixed at 1.1190, after which the pair turned around and went up, reaching the height of 1.1285 at the maximum. Then there was a bounce, and the pair completed the five-day week at the Pivot Point level of the first half of summer,1.1270;

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6 de julho de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 08-12, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. As forecasted, the meeting of US President Donald Trump with PRC President Xi Jinping on the final day of the Osaka summit did not put an end to the trade war. The leaders were able to agree only on a respite in the hostilities and the resumption of trade and economic consultations. However, this result was perceived by the market with moderate optimism. The dollar was strengthening its positions for the whole day of Monday, having dropped the pair almost 100 points. This was followed by a long lull, which could only be broken by the publication of data from the US labor market on Friday. The number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) increased more than three times in June compared with May (from 72K to 224K), which allowed the dollar to press the euro further. The pair almost reached the level of 1.1200, after which a small rebound followed, and it ended the trading session at 1.1225;

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29 de junho de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 01-05, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. It was two weeks ago that most experts predicted the rebound of the pair up. The target for the bulls was to return to the level of 1.1350, and then rise to the zone 1.1420-1.1450. This forecast came true, if not by 100%, then by 99%: the pair recorded a local high at the height of 1.1411 on June 25. There followed a slight reversal after that, and, waiting for the results of negotiations at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, the pair turned into a sideways trend in the narrow channel 1.1345-1.1390, ending the working week at 1.1370;

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22 de junho de 2019

Forex Forecast for July - August 2019

The peak of the vacation season is approaching, which usually entails a decline in business activity, including that in financial markets. On the one hand, a decrease in the volatility of major currency pairs, which is already low, entails a fall in profits, but on the other hand, it also reduces potential losses in the event of a failed position.

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15 de junho de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 17-21, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The German Ministry of Economics has issued a gloomy forecast on the global outlook for the leading EU economy. The statement by the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, that the overall growth of the Eurozone economy slowed down, has not inspired investors either. Even the information that the share of the euro in the global reserves of leading countries began to grow could not help the European currency. This share is 20.7% now, and it is still very far from the US dollar with its 61.7%. The market does not forget about the possible resuscitation of the ECB quantitative easing policy (QE).

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8 de junho de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 10-14, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. It seems that Mario Draghi has already lost the ability to influence the market, which is waiting for the arrival of the new head of the ECB to replace him. At least, the rather soft rhetoric of Draghi and his reasoning about a possible quantitative easing, sounded last Thursday, was perceived quite calmly by investors. The euro was not weakened by the statement that it was not worth expecting a rate increase until the middle of next year either. As a result, surprisingly, the press conference of the ECB leadership played into the hands of the European currency, and the pair went up to the level above 1.1300. There followed a smooth rollback to the level of 1.1250 and ... a new breakthrough to the north at the time of publication of data on the labor market in the US on Friday, June 07.

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1 de junho de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 03-07, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. President Trump decided to shake up the markets once again. Putting Chinese problems aside for the time being, he turned his eyes towards Mexico. As he failed to build a wall on the border with it, in order to stop the flow of illegal immigrants, we will punish Mexico with the dollar, the US president decided, and increased the duties on Mexican-made goods. Onwards and upwards: in July the rates will be raised up to 10%, in August - up to 15%, in September - up to 20%, and in October - up to 25%.

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25 de maio de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 27 - 31, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. Complaints and sometimes even moans have been heard everywhere in the last months about the low volatility of this pair. The same is true about last week, until the second half of Thursday, the maximum range of its fluctuations did not exceed 45 points. The pair spent most of the time napping, sleepily crawling along the narrow corridor of 25 points. However, the events of the week, from the aggravation of the US-China trade war and the upcoming elections to the European Parliament to the statements by the Fed leadership and poor data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone, played into the hands of the dollar. As a result, the pair, as most experts had suggested (75%), fell to the two-year lows, stopping at $1.1105 per euro.

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18 de maio de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 20 - 24, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The upcoming elections to the European Parliament, as well as multi-episode confusion with Brexit continue to put pressure on the European currency. Even the escalation of tensions in the US-China trade war does not help the euro: despite the fighting mood of the PRC leadership, the markets are betting on the US victory. And the failure of China will automatically exacerbate the problems of the closely related Eurozone.

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11 de maio de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 13 - 17, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The main economic event of recent days was the failure of the US-China trade negotiations. The United States decided to increase duties on a number of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%, after which the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that it would be forced to take retaliatory measures. However, the market reacted rather sluggishly even to these statements, the range of weekly fluctuations of the pair did not exceed 85 points, and it could not penetrate the resistance 1.1250

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4 de maio de 2019

Basel III Standard: Will Gold Become Global Currency Instead of the Dollar?

March 29 this year saw the start of the Bank for International Settlements new rules implementation final phase. Some experts believe that returning the status of money to gold should put an end to the absolute power of the dollar. According to their forecasts, the US currency may fall by 40% by December, and may lose its value at the beginning of next year.

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27 de abril de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 29 - May 03, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. As said in the previous forecast, the euro has returned to the boundaries of the four-month downward channel. And 70% of the experts, supported by graphical analysis, considered that in such a situation, the European currency would continue to lose ground, dropping into the zone of the 2019 lows, 1.1175-1.1185. Expectations of strong economic statistics from the US were pushing the euro down for the whole week, confirming the validity of such a forecast. The pair even exceeded the “plan”, dropping to the level of 1.1110 by the middle of Friday, April 26.

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20 de abril de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 22 - 26, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. Most experts (65%) expected that the pair would go down. This forecast was supported by signals from a third of the oscillators indicating that the pair was overbought. All this happened: the weekly amplitude of fluctuations was about 100 points, and the low was fixed at 1.1225.

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13 de abril de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 15 - 19, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. Many traders complain of low volatility in the market. But even despite the pessimism of Mario Draghi shown by him after the ECB meeting on Wednesday 10 April, the euro managed to win back about 100 pips from the dollar over the past week and return to the very strong support/resistance zone of 1.1300, around which the pair started moving back in January 2015. The reason for this is most likely the delay in Brexit.

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6 de abril de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 08 - 12, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The vast majority of analysts (75%), supported by 100% of trend indicators and 90% of oscillators, said last week that if the pair overcomes the support level of 1.1200, it will be able to continue moving down. The closest goal is the low of 2018-19, recorded on March 7, 1.1175. At the same time, graphical analysis on D1 stated that the pair would not be able to overcome this support and would return to the horizon 1.1340.

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30 de março de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 01 - 05, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. Despite the decline in the GDP data, the US dollar has felt pretty confident this week. And it’s not the US President, not the Fed, but, first of all, the Prime Minister and the Parliament of Great Britain, who can’t decide how to get out of the stalemate that they themselves have driven, who are the reason.

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23 de março de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 25 - 29, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The Federal Reserve has left the interest rate unchanged, at 2.5%, and is no longer going to raise it this year. The Fed also lowered its forecasts for US GDP and inflation and raised the unemployment forecast for 2019-2021.

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16 de março de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 18 - 22, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. During the whole week, the European currency was pushed up not only by the growth of the Euro Stoxx 600 index, accompanied by the pigeon rhetoric of the ECB Head Mario Draghi, but also, above all, by an optimistic attitude regarding the exit conditions (and perhaps not the exit) of the UK from the EU. As a result, the pair re-consolidated within the medium-term corridor 1.1215-1.1570, in which it has been moving since end October 2018, and even approached its central line, reaching a height of 1.1338 on Wednesday, March 13.

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9 de março de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 11 - 15, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The pair collapsed on Thursday, March 7, after the ECB announced that it was not worth waiting for the increase in interest rates this autumn. The earliest when this can happen is 2020. In addition, it became known that the European regulator plans to launch LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation) in September - a program to refinance European banks at low interest rates. If we add the reduction in forecasts for GDP and inflation to this, as well as statistics on foreign trade of China that are not the best for the Eurozone, the picture for the European currency is rather sad.

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2 de março de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 04 - 08, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. For the first half of the week, the euro was growing due to expectations that the UK’s exit from the EU will be postponed indefinitely. The pair rose above the center line of the medium-term corridor 1.1300-1.1500. However, the last day of winter, February 28, made its own adjustments, inspiring fans of the dollar. The estimate of US GDP for 2018 turned out to be much higher than the forecast. A very strong index of business activity in Chicago played in favor of the dollar. As a result, the pair went down, but the joy of the bears was short-lived. The impulse was so weak that it could not even come close to the support of 1.1300. And after the publication of the ISM Business Activity Index on March 1, which turned out to be worse than the previous value, and worse than the forecast, the pair went up again. This was followed by another unsuccessful attempt to break through the defenses of the bulls, after which the pair completed the week at 1.1365.

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23 de fevereiro de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 25 - March 01, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. For almost the entire week, the pair stayed where it had been repeatedly a week, a month, and two or three months ago. Apart from the rare short-term breakthroughs, the pair cannot break out of the medium-term corridor 1.1300-1.1500. If we expand this channel to extremum points, it will be slightly wider: 1.1215-1.1570.

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17 de fevereiro de 2019

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 18 - 22, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. Recall that the expert community was not able to form a more or less definite opinion on the movement of this pair last week. This was due to the lack of clarity on both Brexit and the US-China negotiations. In addition, analysts were waiting for the release of data on GDP in Germany and the EU, as well as inflation and retail sales in the US. And if Europe showed an expected growth of 1.2%, and Germany rose by 0.2% (from -0.2% to 0.0%), the data from the USA caused a strong alarm in the market. Retail sales fell by 1.2%, the maximum value in 10 years. As a result, the dollar index suspended growth and moved away from two-month highs.

The dollar has also stopped growing to the European currency. However, if we sum up the results of the whole five-day week, the victory nevertheless remained with the “American”: having started from the level of 1.1320, the pair finished the week at the level of 1.1295

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